Friday, January 29, 2010

Big East Breakdown

The Big East season is in full swing. Everyone has played 8 games, except Louisville, West Virginia and UConn who played 7, and Georgetown who played 9. I figure we look at who everyone beat, who beat them, who they have for the next 5 conference games, their chances on winning the regular season, conference tournament and making the NCAA. It'll be easier than it sounds.

1. Villanova Wildcats 8-0. 19-1
Key Players: Scottie Reynolds 18.7 pts 3.3 assts. Corey Fisher 13.3 pts 4.3 asst. Antonio Pena 10.8 pts 7.6 rbs
Who They Beat: Marquette (2), Louisville, DePaul, Georgetown, Rutgers, St John's, Notre Dame
Who Beat Them: No one
Who's Next: Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @West Virginia, Providence, UConn
Regular Season Champ %: 74. They travel to Pitt and Syracuse as well as the games above. They have tough sledding ahead.
B.E Tournament Champ%: 78.
NCAA %: 100. Only an injury or a severe fade keeps the Wildcats out

2. Syracuse Orange 7-1. 20-1
Key Players: Wesley Johnson 17.1 pts 9 rbs. Andy Rautins 10.6 pts 5.2 assts Kris Joseph 10.2 pts 5.1 rbs
Who They Beat: Seton Hall, South Florida, Rutgers, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown
Who Beat Them: Pittsburgh
Who's Next: @DePaul, Providence, @Cincinnati, UConn, Louisville
Regular Season Champ %: 84. I really like this Orange team. They play together great, and they lock down defensively. I think Wes Johnson is the best player in the Big East. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 83. I think right now they are the favorites to do what Louisville did last year. However, I don't think it will happen
NCAA %: 100. Same reason as above

3. Pittsburgh Panthers 6-2. 16-4
Key Players: Ashton Gibbs 17.1 pts 2.9 rbs. Brad Wanamaker 12.8 pts 6.6 rbs 4.3 assts Gilbert Brown 9.7 pts 3.6 rbs
Who They Beat: DePaul, Syracuse, Cincinnati, UConn, Louisville, St John's
Who Beat Them: Georgetown, Seton Hall
Who's Next: @South Florida, @WVU, Seton Hall, WVU, @Marquette
Regular Season Champ %: 72. Pitt might have played their best basketball of the season, but there is a chance they could get 8 more wins in conference. They have proved that were better than everyone thought coming into the season.
B.E Tournament Champ%: 62. I don't think this is the type of team that could make a run in MSG
NCAA %: 96. They have some good wins, and they should make it

4. West Virginia Mountaineers 5-2. 16-3
Key Players: Da'Sean Butler 15.9 pts 6.4 rbs 3.5 assts. Kevin Jones 14.1 pts 7.8 rbs. Devin Ebanks 11.5 pts 8 rbs
Who They Beat: Seton Hall, Marquette, Rutgers, South Florida, DePaul
Who Beat Them: Notre Dame, Syracuse
Who's Next: Louisville, Pittsburgh, @St Johns, Villanova, @Pittsburgh
Regular Season Champ %: 66. The schedule toughens up on Hugg's boys. The lack of a point guard has hurt them in all their losses, and I think it's going to hurt their chances of winning the regular season.
B.E Tournament Champ%: 70. This is the type of team that could be a nightmare in the BET
NCAA %: 95. They have a nice resume, and shouldn't drop that many BE games to make it an issue. How long they last in the tournament is another story.

5. Georgetown Hoyas 6-3. 15-4
Key Players: Andy Freeman 16 pts 3.9 rbs. Greg Monroe 14.8 pts 10.1 rbs. Chris Wright 14.6 pts 4.2 assts
Who They Beat: St John's, DePaul, UConn, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Rutgers 
Who Beat Them: Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse
Who's Next: South Florida, Villanova, @Providence, @Rutgers, Syracuse
Regular Season Champ %: 69. There's a chance they could run the table. They play @Louisville, and @WVU though. There's also a chance they could not score, and they could lose to anyone. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 60. I don't like this squad to pull off a run like that.
NCAA %: 93. They beat Temple and Butler non conference, and they'll finish above .500 in the BE, which should be enough. 

6. Louisville Cardinals 4-3. 13-7
Key Players: Samardo Samuels 15.9 pts 7.6 rbs. Edgar Sosa 13.9 pts 3.8 assts. Preston Knowles 8.8 pts 3.8 rbs
Who They Beat: South Florida, Providence, St John's, Cincinnati
Who Beat Them: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall
Who's Next: @WVU, UConn, Rutgers, @St John's, @Syracuse
Regular Season Champ %: 9. The odds fall off the charts after Georgetown. The middle of the conference is good, do not get me wrong. But they can't afford to slip up the rest of the way to catch Nova and Syracuse. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 20. Louisville jumped out to big leads on Nova and Pitt, and with their pressure they could pull off the 4 day sweep. However, they lost to Nova and Pitt, so they could lose day 1. 
NCAA %: 64. Louisville doesn't really have much in the resume, but I think they are a little better than the rest of the Big East, and will find a way to make it in the Big Dance.

7. Cincinnati Bearcats 4-4. 13-7
Key Players: We know who they are, we can skip this part
Who They Beat: UConn, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida
Who Beat Them: Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, St John's, Louisville
Who's Next: Providence, @Notre Dame, Syracuse, @UConn, @South Florida
Regular Season Champ %: 5. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 11. I don't think there is much chance UC could run the gauntlet of the BET. I think that they need to win some games in it though. They need the first round bye. 
NCAA %: 60. The wins over Maryland and Vandy look good, so do wins over fellow bubblers ND and UConn. The Bearcats have to get some wins now.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-4. 15-6
Key Players: Luke Harangody 24.5 pts 9.9 rbs. Tim Abromaitis 16.7 pts 4.5 rbs. Ben Hansbrough 11.5 pts 5 assts
Who They Beat: Providence, South Florida, West Virginia, DePaul
Who Beat Them: UConn, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova
Who's Next: @Rutgers, Cincinnati, South Florida, @Seton Hall, St John's
Regular Season Champ %: 5. It could be higher, but they play no defense
B.E Tournament Champ%: 15. It's not out of the realm of possibility this team shoots lights out for 4 days. 
NCAA %: 61. ND doesn't have much in their resume, but they can get over 20 wins and that might be enough. The next 5 games are crucial. If they lose any, their chances go down a lot. 

7. Providence Friars 4-4. 12-8
Key Players: Jamine Peterson 17.9 pts 10.3 rbs. Sharaud Curry 15 pts 3.8 assts. Marshon Brooks 15 pts 4.6 rbs
Who They Beat: St John's, Rutgers, DePaul, UConn
Who Beat Them: Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, South Florida
Who's Next: @Cincinnati, @Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, @Villanova
Regular Season Champ %: 5. They also don't play much defense, and have a brutal stretch as you can see.
B.E Tournament Champ%: 10
NCAA %: 20. I just don't see it for the Friars. They lost to Iona, which is their only bad loss, and also lost to every other good team they've played. 

10. Connecticut Huskies 3-4. 13-7
Key Players: Jerome Dyson 19.1 pts 4.9 assts 4.7 rbs. Stanley Robinson 16.8 pts 7.4 rbs. Kemba Walker 13.4 pts 6.2 assts 4.1 rbs
Who They Beat: Notre Dame, Seton Hall, St John's 
Who Beat Them: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Providence 
Who's Next: @Louisville, DePaul, @Syracuse, Cincinnati, @Villanova
Regular Season Champ %: 8. Just because of the talent level. I doubt they win any of the road games though. Maybe Louisville, since they match up well with them it seems. But without Calhoun, who knows? 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 10. Talent level respect, even though they would have to win 5 games in 5 days at this point. 
NCAA %: 60. I don't know what to make of UConn. They are wildly inconsistent. The win over Texas could help, but that out be an outlier. The beat down against Providence was surprising. 

11. South Florida Bulls 3-5. 13-7
Key Players: Dominique Jones 21.4 pts 6 rbs 4.3 assts. Jarrid Famous 11.7 pts 8.1 rbs. Chris Howard 9.7 pts 3.9 rbs
Who They Beat: Rutgers, Providence, Seton Hall
Who Beat Them: Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Who's Next: Pittsburgh, @Georgetown, @Notre Dame, @Marquette, Cincinnati
Regular Season Champ %: 3. What a ridiculous schedule
B.E Tournament Champ%: 6. No way a team runs all 5 games, but Dom. Jones gives them a fighters chance every night.
NCAA %: 11. Stranger things have happened. They have won 2 in a row, and get Augustus Gilchrist back soon

11. Seton Hall Pirates 3-5. 12-7
Key Players: Jeremy Hazell 22.5 pts 3.6 rbs. Herb Pope 12.3 pts 11.4 rbs. Jeff Robinson 9.7 pts 5.5 rbs
Who They Beat: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh
Who Beat Them: West Virginia, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, South Florida
Who's Next: @Villanova, @Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, DePaul, @St John's
Regular Season Champ %: 4. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 6. Maybe Hazell shoots out of his mind for a week. 
NCAA %: 35. The Pirates looked like they were making a move, and then lost to South Florida. They don't have the most brutal schedule, but they play 6 road games and I don't trust them.

11. Marquette Golden Eagles 3-5. 12-8
Key Players: Lazar Hayward 18.1 pts 7.7 rbs. Jimmy Butler 14.8 pts 6.6 rbs. Darius Johnson-Odom 12.4 pts 2.4 assts
Who They Beat: Georgetown, Providence, Rutgers
Who Beat Them: West Virginia, Villanova (2), DePaul, Syarcuse
Who's Next: @UConn, DePaul, @Providence, South Florida, Pittsburgh
Regular Season Champ %: 5. Their schedule eases up some, and I think the Eagles can make a run to the middle of the pack. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 6. They have a nice team, but a propensity for losing close games. I don't think there's enough there to go on that big a run.
NCAA %: 29. They have 2 good wins against Xavier and Georgetown, but not much else. Their  close game losses are really hurting their portfolio. 

14. St John's Red Storm 2-6. 12-8
Key Players: DJ Kennedy 15 pts 6.4 rbs 3.2 assts. Dwight Hardy 11.9 pts 2.3 rbs. Paris Horne 8.3 pts 2.3 rbs
Who They Beat: Cincinnati, DePaul
Who Beat Them: Georgetown, Providence, Louisville, UConn, Villanova, Pittsburgh
Who's Next: @Rutgers, WVU, Louisville, @Notre Dame, Seton Hall
Regular Season Champ %: 3. 
B.E Tournament Champ%: 3. They would have to go on a crazy run to get a bye. Maybe they could win a game though.
NCAA %: 15. 

15. DePaul Blue Demons 1-7. 8-12
Key Players: Will Walker 16.1 pts 3.2 rbs. Mack Koswahl 14 pts 10.5 rbs Mike Stoval 7.1 pts 2.7 rbs
Who They Beat: Marquette
Who Beat Them: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, St John's, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Who's Next: Syracuse, @Marquette, @UConn, @Seton Hall, Rutgers
Regular Season Champ %: 2. At least they won a conference game
B.E Tournament Champ%: 2. They were 1/5 of the way there last year. 
NCAA %: 2. 

16. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-8. 9-11
Key Players: Mike Rosario 15.3 pts 4.2 rbs. Jonathan Mitchell 10.1 pts 5.1 rbs. Hamady Ndiaye 9.1 pts 6.5 rbs. 
Who They Beat: No one
Who Beat Them: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Providence, Syracuse, South Florida, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette
Who's Next: Notre Dame, St John's, @Louisville, Georgetown, @DePaul
Regular Season Champ %: 1
B.E Tournament Champ%: 1. The 16 seed won a game last year
NCAA %: 1. Everyone has a chance, no matter how small.

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