Thursday, January 28, 2010

National Breakdown

With a couple of key Big East games on the docket tonight, St John's at Pittsburgh and Seton Hall at South Florida, I think we should take a look at the national scene in regard to the NCAA tournament. This isn't a bubble watch or anything, just teams on the radar. The Big East not included. Let's start shall we?
(Standings thanks to ESPN.com)

Atlantic 10 + 4 
First off a rant. Why is it still the A-10? The Big 10 looks stupid for having 11, and the A-10 looked at it and said let's raise the stupid bar a few notches. They must have realized that no one cares about their league and what it's called, so they decided to screw it and add tons of teams. Rant over.


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Temple
5-1
17-4
Charlotte
5-1
15-5
Xavier
5-1
13-6
Rhode Island
4-2
16-3
Richmond
4-2
15-6
Saint Louis
3-2
12-7
Dayton
3-3
14-6
La Salle
3-3
11-9
St. Bonaventure
2-3
9-9
George Washington
2-4
12-7
Massachusetts
2-4
8-12
Saint Joseph's
2-4
8-12
Duquesne
1-4
10-9
Fordham
0-7
2-17

The A-14 is pretty deep this year. It is unrealistic to think that all 7 contenders will make the NCAAs. They all have good wins though. Richmond beat Florida, Temple beat Villanova, Charlotte beat Louisville, Dayton beat Georgia Tech, Rhode Island beat Oklahoma State, and X beat UC. I think no more than 4 make it out of the conference with Rhode Island, Charlotte and Richmond being left out. 


ACC


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Maryland
4-1
14-5
Virginia
3-1
12-5
Duke
5-2
17-3
Wake Forest
4-2
14-4
Florida State
3-3
15-5
Georgia Tech
3-3
14-5
Virginia Tech
2-2
15-3
Clemson
3-4
15-6
Boston College
3-4
12-9
North Carolina
2-3
13-7
North Carolina State
2-5
13-8
Miami (FL)
1-5
15-5

Surprising to see Maryland on top isn't it? I think it's a bit unrealistic to see Virginia hang out on top of the standings all year. Virginia Tech has a good record, but their best win is Georgia? Seton Hall? Penn State? Wake Forest looks to be for real. Duke is still the top dog if you ask me. If someone said to you that UC and UNC would have the same record at this point in the season, you would take it right? I think the ACC gets 6, Duke, Maryland, Wake, FSU, GT and Clemson. I wouldn't be shocked with 7.


Big 12


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Kansas
5-0
19-1
Texas
4-1
18-2
Kansas State
4-2
17-3
Oklahoma State
4-2
16-4
Missouri
3-2
15-5
Texas A&M
3-3
14-6
Oklahoma
3-3
12-8
Baylor
2-3
15-4
Texas Tech
2-4
14-6
Colorado
2-4
11-9
Iowa State
1-4
12-8
Nebraska
0-5
12-8

Kansas will probably get back to the top spot on the polls come Monday, and are the odds on favorite to take the whole thing come March. I like Baylor, but that loss to Colorado could really hurt. The jury is still out on Oklahoma State, who has no good wins out of conference, but wins over K-State and A&M in conference. I think we could see 5 make it, with Kansas, Texas, K-State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. 


Big 10 + 1


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Michigan State
8-0
18-3
Wisconsin
6-2
16-4
Ohio State
5-3
15-6
Illinois
5-3
13-8
Purdue
4-3
16-3
Minnesota
4-4
13-7
Indiana
3-4
9-10
Northwestern
3-5
14-6
Michigan
3-5
10-10
Iowa
2-6
8-13
Penn State
0-8
8-12

Michigan State has had some close calls in the league, but the Spartans are still undefeated. Purdue and Wisconsin throwdown tonight, and if the Boilers win, MSU has the conference almost locked up. The national media is made up of all Northwestern grads who want to see the Wildcats make the big dance. The schedule breaks for them as they play Indiana, Penn State and Iowa all twice. Plus Chicago State. That should be 7 wins, and one would think if they added a win against Minnesota or at Wisconsin, they would be in. I think 5 make it here, with MSU, OSU, Purdue and Wisconsin joining Northwestern.


Conference USA


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
UAB
6-0
18-2
Tulsa
5-1
16-4
Memphis
5-1
15-5
UTEP
5-1
14-5
Marshall
4-2
15-5
Houston
3-3
10-9
Southern Methodist
2-3
9-10
UCF
2-4
10-10
Southern Miss
1-4
11-8
East Carolina
1-5
7-13
Tulane
1-5
6-13
Rice
0-6
6-13

I added C-USA to the mix because it looks to be at least a 2 bid league. UAB is in control, but UTEP ended Memphis' conference winning streak and the 2 play next. Marshall hasn't beaten anyone. Memphis whiffed on their non-conference schedule and lost to UMass. I think UAB and UTEP make it.


Mountain West


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Brigham Young
5-1
20-2
New Mexico
5-2
19-3
UNLV
5-2
17-4
San Diego State
3-3
14-6
Colorado State
3-3
12-8
Utah
3-3
10-10
TCU
2-4
10-11
Wyoming
2-4
9-11
Air Force
0-6
8-11

If you don't think the Mountain West is worth talking about, you are on crack sir. A day after calling BYU a top 10 team, the Bearcats Blog jinx kicked them in the nuts as they lost to New Mexico. The top 3 should all make it. SDSU could be a spoiler in the MWC tournament, but I doubt it. 


Pac 10


TEAM
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
California
5-2
13-6
Arizona State
4-3
14-6
USC
4-3
12-7
Stanford
4-3
10-9
Arizona
4-3
10-9
UCLA
4-3
9-10
Washington State
4-4
14-6
Washington
3-5
13-7
Oregon
2-5
10-9
Oregon State
2-5
8-11

It's true to say that the Pac 10 has been full of suck. Washington has been gigantically disappointing, but I think they could win the conference tournament and steal a bid. I mean, look at the standings. The tournament is going to be a bid stealer. California should win the regular season, but keep an eye on Arizona State, who plays Cal tonight. Washington State has and artificially inflated record. 2 teams make it, maybe 3 but let's not go crazy.


SEC


EAST
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Vanderbilt
5-0
16-3
Kentucky
4-1
19-1
Florida
4-2
15-5
Tennessee
3-2
15-4
South Carolina
3-3
12-8
Georgia
1-4
9-9
WEST
CONF. W-L
OVERALL W-L
Mississippi State
3-1
15-4
Mississippi
3-2
15-4
Alabama
3-3
13-7
Arkansas
1-3
8-11
Auburn
1-4
10-10
LSU
0-6
9-11

After winning at Tennessee, look who is leading the SEC East. It's unsure if Vandy can ride the wave and take the East after Kentucky has been practically handed it. The 2 play Saturday. The West is the Mississippi teams and a bunch of jokers. Alabama is decent, but not more than that. Tennessee should make the tournament, but I see a swoon coming for them. Florida is a tough team to get a handle on, with 2 buzzer beaters this season from Chandler Parsons. 5 or 6 will make it between UK, Vandy, the Mississippi's, Florida and UT.


Smaller League breakdown


America East- Maine is 6-1, 14-6 overall. Stony Brook (14-7) is their competition at 6-2 but lost to Maine already.
Atlantic Sun- Campbell (12-7), Jacksonville (11-8), and East Tennessee State (11-10) are all 7-3. Looks like a 16 seed comes from here.
Big Sky- Weber State (13-7) is 7-1 and lead Northern Colorado (17-4) and Montana State (11-8) who are 6-2. NC beat Weber who beat MSU who beat NC.
Big South- Coastal Carolina at 18-3, 8-1, is running away with it with a 2 game lead on Radford (10-9) 6-3.
Big West- Pacific (12-6) 5-1 leads UC Santa Barbara (10-7) and Cal Poly (8-10) by half a game, but 1 in the loss column. 
CAA- George Mason (14-7) leads things with a 9-1 record. Old Dominion (16-5) is 8-1, and Northeastern (13-8) is 8-2. William and Mary (14-6) beat Wake and Richmond, but has dropped 3 straight and are 6-4. 
Horizon- Butler (16-4) is 9-0 and leads Wisconsin Green Bay (15-7) by 2 1/2 games. It's Butler's to lose.
Ivy- Cornell and Harvard are both 2-0 and have 16-3 and 13-3 records respectively leading some to wonder if the Ivy could get 2 bids. That seems unreasonable, but I wouldn't want to face either one in the first round.
MAAC- Siena (17-4) is 10-0 and look ready to march back to the dance. They can't afford to drop more than a game for an at large big. Iona (15-6), Fairfield (14-6), and St Peter's (12-8) are all 7-3.
MAC- Central Michigan (9-8) leads the West at 4-1 over 4-2 Northern Illinois (8-10), but the power is in the East. Akron (14-6) and Kent State (13-7) are both 4-2. 
MEAC- Morgan State (14-7) is 6-0 and appears to be the class of the league. Bethune-Cookman (12-8) and Howard (6-15) are hanging around at 5-2.
Missouri Valley- Northern Iowa (18-2) leads the way at 9-1 and as long as they don't collapse, they should get a bid. Wichita State (18-4) beat UNI, and are the closest competition at 7-3. 
Northeastern- There's a battle at the top as Quinnipiac (13-6) and Robert Morris (12-8) are 7-1. St Francis (9-10) and Long Island (8-11) are hanging around at 6-2.
Ohio Valley- Murray State has raced (get it? huh huh) out to a 19-3 record and are a perfect 10-0. Morehead State (14-6) are on their heels at 8-1, but lost to Murray by 30.
Patriot League- Lafayette (14-7) is 5-1, but Leigh (13-8) is right behind at 4-2. The league is tightly packed and the tournament title game that happens on a Friday in the middle of the afternoon on ESPN is something I always end up watching. 
Southern- Western Carolina (16-4) leads their division at 6-2, and Charleston (13-7) leads their division at 8-1. WCU beat Louisville, and Charleston beat UNC non conference. WCU beat Charleston on Monday.
Southland- Sam Houston State (13-5) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (11-8) are 5-0 and leading the west, while Stephen F. Austin (14-5) leads the east at 4-2. 
SWAC- Texas Southern (10-9) and Jackson State (8-11) are 6-1 and lead a log jam of the 5-2 foes. Poor Alcorn State is 0-8 and 0-21 this season. The closest they've come to a win is having a game against Jackson State cancelled.
Summit- Oakland and IUPUI are both 15-7 on the year, but the Golden Grizzlies beat the Jaguars and are 9-0 to their 8-1. What one is which? Google search son. (Oakland are the Griz)
Sun Belt- Arkansas State (11-8) leads the west with a 6-2 record, a loss better than 6-3 Denver (13-7). In the east, Middle Tennessee (11-10) and Florida Atlantic (10-10) are both 6-3. 
WCC- Gonzaga (16-3) is 5-0 and has beaten all of their main competition on the road. The Zags shouldn't drop another one, except maybe to St Mary's (17-3). The Gaels are 4-1 in league and travel to Spokane in February.
WAC- Louisiana Tech and their 18-3 record have gotten some top 25 votes. They are leading the league at 6-1. Utah State (15-6) and New Mexico State (12-8) are 5-2. 

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